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Greece 15, China 13, Washington 9, Nancy Skinner 6, Jerry Doyle 5, John Carney 5, Steve Moore 5, U.s. 5, Jimmy Carter 4, Dan 4, Robert Reich 4, America 4, Bob 4, Dan Fitzpatrick 3, Obama 3, Harry Reid 3, Bill Clinton 3, Us 3, California 3, Europe 3,
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  CNBC    The Kudlow Report    News/Business. Larry Kudlow.  

    February 12, 2010
    7:00 - 8:00pm EST  

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tonight on the kudlow report, not greece, china, nor the cold winter snows were able to stop stocks from rising this week. new investors create new wealth. i believe you can. better factor in a stronger u.s. dollar which probably means buying retailers, banks, transports and stocks, not commodities. by the way, let greece take its own lumps. not too big to fail.
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that will help world recovery. if the obama stimulus package is so great, why is the administration economic forecast predicting a 10% jobless rate this year over 8 #% in 2012. fellas, if you cut tax rates across the board, to create inessentisecentive incentives, it would be lower than what you're showing. the difference between failure and success. where's the republican message, obama's going down, but is the gop coming up? fasten your seat belts, everybody, "the kudlow report" begins right now. good evening, everyone. i'm larry kudlow. welcome back to "the kudlow report." let's begin with tonight's money
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politics message. our lead story is the stock market. and the economy. you know what? stocks persevered this week despite worries about greece in particular, the euro currency in general, and the cold winter snows, you know what? the dow rose 87 points with it all. it closed at 10,099. not bad. the nasdaq up 2%. very good. it's a great sign of strength. look the-year-old curve is steep. and retail sales, surprisingly came in stronger than expected. okay, we're in a moderate u.s. cyclical recovery and profits are strong and business sales are rising and king dollar looks very firm. i'm thinking of a portfolio shift out of xhomties and out of energy into retailers, transports, tech and banks. they'll all benefit from a stronger dollar. just my thought.
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our expert pam is going to weigh in just a moment to help you create some wealth. greece, meanwhile, is not too big to fail. china, meanwhile, is right to tamp down speculation. as one pupd it put it to me, washington may be writing the stock market letter. right now, scott brown grid lock on health care, and this so-called jobs bill is a good thing. that's right. grid lock right now is a good thing. we're still waiting for real stimulus from supply sales tax cuts. meanwhile, the white house is predicting 10% unemployment and 9% next year. government spending has done next to nothing. bernanke still has no real strategy. we're going to get to all of that with our market panel. who joins us now to talk about
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these many events of the week. we have peter morici of university of maryland. dan fitzpatrick and john carney returns. you know, dr. frolick, i want to begin with you. not greece, not the euro, not the snows, nothing really week.d stocks from going up the market has peaked in mid january and hasn't moved much in many months. but the fact remains, things may not be so bad. weigh in. >> i think it comes down to earnings, larry. we got some great efshgs. across the board, time warner, ann taylor, a look at comcast, even moodie and sony, it wasn't just earnings, larry, it was
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top-level revenue growth. the big picture, when you look at china, understand even with them slowing down, when they slowed down the first time, china banks still let $2 billion this january. third highest on record. as investors you have to realize this is money already in pipeline. when you think of china mustard seeds, larry, they're about this big. that's going to be the story. >> all right, very interesting. so you remain an unabashed bull? >> that would be correct let me ask you this, some sector reallocations, if king dollar is going to be strong, with the euro faltering, i want to ask you, bob, is it to get out of commodities, maybe gold, time to look at for example, retailers, where consumer purchasing power
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does better, technology looks very, very strong. the steep yield curve is great for banks. are those reasonable views or do row have a different take? >> no, i think they are reasonable views, larry. i would stay in financials and technology. i think they're clearly going to do well and the retail play, what i would suggest to viewers, think about it as a bash bell approach. high-end luxury retailers. these retail sales numbers tells us that the retailer is not dead. the only thing i would say about the commodity play, i really think we're still going to see a global economy and above trend growth. i still think it might have some legs. i like getting into retail. i don't think i would take money off the table in energy. i wouldn't add to it at this
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point. >> very well put. we heard the good news. the bad news, john carney, for of all, i have taken the view finally after mulg he over all week, if greece default, on one of their bond issues because of their horrendous deficit and fiscal position, that might be the best thing for greece, cause some market pressures for some decent, balanced fiscal policy. >> you're absolutely right. it wouldn't be good for greece. it would be good for every single one of the spending european countries that haven't budget discipline for a long time. a bailout would be the worst thing that could happen. >> john, i don't mean to interrupt. when you include the various countries in europe, who might benefit from this experience, mart discipline, can i throw in california and new jersey and illinois and new and lord knows who else?
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>> absolutely. all of the american versions of what they call the pigs over there, are right now, all thinking, and california, the l.a. council recently refused to cut budgets. california keeps being fiscally irresponsible. why? because in the end, they think uncle sam will be there with a check. if we go back to the fortune new york drop dead, where new yorkers had to come together and work out their debt, work and make deals with their creditors, instead of this check is going to come from somewhere on end, that would be good. it would restore exactly what you're saying. >> discipline has to trump bailouts and too big to fail l every sfep of the way. >> i got to pete and dan, hang
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on, everybody. john, what is greece doing, talking to vladimir putin, i don't get this at all. any time i see that kind of thing, ooh, that can't be good. >> they may be cooking up the axis of orthodoxy. between greece and russia, what greece is trying to do is pressure the eu and the u.s. to bail them out. they're saying, if you guys don't come through with the check, we're going to go up north and east and get a check from up east. >> do we believe that putin is going to start underwriting european union defaults? i know he's anti-business. he can't be that stupid. >> he's smart enough to play this for all its worth. make it seem like he's going to make a deal.
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get what the greece wants, a bailout from the european union or the imf. >> what bothers me is that putin might try to get into cahoots with that left-wing greek government. that bothers me. peter, i kind of looked at this chinese tightening, 50 basis points in reserve requirements to take some cash out of the economy, take some excess cash out of the economy, second time in about a month, peter, i looked at that as positive. what's your take? >> every time, china pinches to yuan. that drives up prices. creates the bubble we all spoken about. china's trying to remove that liquidity. it's simply not enough. this is a substitute for currency appreciation. >> so, what's wrong with that? why do these guys on wall
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street, you hear this all the time, peter, traders on wall street, quake in their boots, any time there's any fiscal restraint. it's like we have learned nothing from 2002, 2003 and so forth. what's wrong with that? fwrees is doing something sensible. >> their currency intervention increases every year. this is a substitute for currency appreciation. if you believe in free markets, if you believe in free trade in goods, let's have free trade in curren currency. let the market determine the value. >> so, if team obama would keep their yaps shut, in the business week interview, obama said that china should re-evaluate their currency. >> it's a pillar of their
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development currency. it's working very well for them. unfortunately, one of the reasons we're only having a moderate recovery. i would be much tougher on china than obama is. you know that. >> only if i could get to crawl under a pillow. peter, never poke a stick in your banker's eye. >> i don't believe that's a problem. >> we'll have to have a whole hour to debate that particular subject. i want you on currency convertibility. >> i want to ask you, dan, my great pal mike howland, i'm on the phone with him today. he's going up to boston for a wedding. i'm on the phone with him. he says look, larry, washington writes the stock market letter
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and right now, post scott brown's election, we're looking at some serious gridlock. gridlock on this terrible health care bill. i hope gridlock on this ridiculous, little tax credit jobs bill which will not create any jobs. maybe they don't do any more harm. that's bullish. why are you bearish. >> i agree with you. that's bullish. i love gridlock. gridlock is a good thing. look, i think it's thats a percent of it is not really bearish for stocks. the less i hear out of washington, the more i like it and the more feel like-- i feele a free american. what makes anybody think that we have any power that we're going to exert over china. china's going to act in its own best interest. which nations do. that's what to do and what
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they're expected to do. we have given these nations big clubs and they're hitting us over the head. it doesn't make sense. >> china is properly withdrawing cash. i'm going to come back to john carney -- if the political letter written by washington is moving toward gridlock, do no harm for the outlook of growth, profits and capital formation, if such things are possible, dan fitzpatrick, why are you so negative? >> i'm short term, frankly, larry, i'm bullish on equities. >> buy the dip, buy the correction. >> absolutely. i was mentioning having this chat with you and steve leaseman, as long as they're plenty of liquidity into the system over here, irrespective of the what long-term implications are, you put that
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money to work and ride the wave. ultimately, this is going to end badly. the best way to survive is to get rich in the meantime. you'll be able to do that by investing into equities. there's a lack of options. i agree with you. >> credit risk spreads are way down. michael dart has been pointing this out. >> we got a limp hockey stick the way i'm looking at it. with a really wide blade. this is like i said, have no long-term optimism for this. but for the short term in the next year or two, not fair enough. >> coming out of europe, unlike wall street, wall street is so reveling in the possibilities of a greek bailout which i think is a lot of nonsense.
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john carney, when you listen to what angela merkel is saying, her coalition partner, the free market party in germany, they don't want to give a nickel to greece. they're saying that the treaty which created the european union and the euro in the first place, actually forbids bilateral assistance to greece or to any country. john, is it possible there will be no greek bailout at all in. >> i wished that was the case. we had a republican administration in place when we bailed out washington over here. the free markets in europe, they're weaker there than here. they don't have a tea party movement over there. when their government try to get tighter with them, say we're not going to spend like crazy, then they go crazy. >> maybe there's tea party
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movement brewing. when you go back and look at the votes, by the way, the eeur lost in a couple of countries. there might be a revolt if these big euro countries, like france, netherlands, start bailing out these weak sisters. i see tea parties. the europeans love their tea. in the afternoon. >> absolutely. >> the european elites are in a tough situation. if they let greece default, it makes the whole euro seem like a joke. if they bail it out, they're going to get a backlash like they have never seen before. >> we got to stop there. john carney, thank you very much. everybody else, hangs going to hang out. coming up -- president obama made some complimentary remarks in businessweek.
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where are the pro-growth policies. look at his unemployment forecast, it's just awful. strongly suggests that his stimulus plan, with all of this government spending and debt is a failure. that's what the unemployment forecast suggests. it just came out last night and is obama turning into jimmy carter in political terms in deep trouble. we'll be right back. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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all right. end of the week. stocks actually went up this week, about a percentage point. nasdaq went up 2 percentage points. for investors out there who want to create wealth, is the correction over? peter morici, give me a quickie on the fed. another big event mr. bernanke put his testimony out even though his hearing was snowed in
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or snowed out or whatever. i had a great monetary expert from stanford and taylor said, bernanke listed six things that the fed could do to take out the excess stimulus. he didn't have strategy to take out the excess stimulus. what do you think and hear about the fed? that is out there over the horizon. >> lot depends on the housing market. 2 million defaults a year. housing prices have been slipping the last couple of months. i'm not convinced that he can withdraw support for the housing market in the manner that he's described. quantity tif easing may not be over. i don't think he can make the-year-old curve much steeper. barack obama who's optimistic about the economy. his economists are saying 3%, that's not much of a recovery. >> all right, bob, do you agree with that? >> i do. i do agree with that.
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when the fed does make their moves, probably after the congressional election, i think it could be more dramatic than most investors think so. i'm not worried about the stock market than i am about the bond mark. >> yes, bonds are going to get slammed. the ten-year treasury which sold off this week on a lousy auction. the ten-year is at 370. yeah, bonds are going to get slammed, probably going to 4.5%, 5%. in terms of investor horizons, they're be right for a correction. i know profits in the longer term might even this out. what's your take on that? is that something that people should worry about now? >> i don't think so, larry, i think the correction happened at the end of last year. when it went up to 10,000 last year. we can get corrections both ways. why -- i think the market is
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going to be okay. i think we're going to get a decent inventory rebuilt. the consumer isn't dead. we know that. business is going to pick up just enough. it's not a perfect environment. i think there's more upside potential than down side risk until we get to the fed tightening. so, i think we're in for a good time for our market. >> dan fitzpatrick, what's your investment strategy right now? you're buying the dip, where would you buy? >> i would buy tech. i think technology is a great play or trade. you can look at the typical names, apple, of course, but ibm, hewlett-packard, some of the data storage industry, i think it's going to be big. so, i think you got to look at tech and also don't forget the infrastructure and aerospace and defense. you got a lot of those sectors
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that are going to get federal money, stimulus jox, whatever you want to call it, they're going to get some of that money and that's going to translate into earnings. >> one thing we talk about during the week here on cnbc and our morning show, transport and airlines rallied big, transports were up as a matter of fact, 2.5%. the best sector. what about transports, dan, what about airlines and what about fedex and u.p.s.? with respect to fedex and u.p.s., i like both of those companies. i like that sector in general. railroads, i think they got a lot of work to do, frankly, they're predicting -- the way they're moving now is forecasting a little bit of a recovery. i'm still big on tech. i think that the transportation
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industry is so levered -- >> dan, does the dollar's rise, the dollar is on a roll, i suspect that the dollar is going to continue to rise, does that damage the multinational techs, i'm thinking of sisco, intel, how does the dollar rise affect them? >> it affects them to some degree but i do think the business generated by those industries is ult bhatly going to translate into earnings. with respect to the dollar, don't you think it's basically just the best of a bad bunch and that's part of the reason why there's so much -- >> i want stability. i hate the traders buying and selling dollars. i think it's a goofy game. i want stability here. the dollar has had a little bit of a rally. you're not worried about techs.
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>> not really. also the dollar, i think, has bottomed. i don't think we're going back there. we're getting that stabilization. >> peter, what about banks. banks were kind of flat on the week. you got your plan, like a second bank tax, by the way, private equity banker wrote a good co-op ed piece in the paper. the outlook for banks, with a steep upward sloping-year-old curve. >> the outlook for intanks good. frankly, i think the new york banks have been through the worst of it. they'll start to reign in compensation. and rebuild some trust because they recognize the need for that. my feeling is that first-quarter growth will likely be the best quarter we get because of the inventory build. that's going to create a lot of euphoria, the market is going to
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move up. confidence is going to re-emerge. even with the currency problem with china and all of the issues that i raised, the u.s. economy has fundamental strengths and u.s. banks have fundamentally engineering capabilities. i'm optimistic we're going to climb out at least the 100 stocks, including the banks. >> well put. thank you so much. you guys are terrific. now, let's check in with my great pal melissa lee, to see what's going on on options action. >> some great single stocks we're all over. double your money by next week. all coming up tonight at 8:30 p.m. eastern time. >> everybody turn into "options action" at 8:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up next -- the jobs
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bill is a total clunker. but i'm asking, where's the republican response? then, obama's stimulus package of spending, borrowing and deficit so great, why is their economic forecast on rising unemployment so awful? john is going to report and our dynamic duo will talk about the failure to lower the unemployment rate. all that here with kudlow. stay with us, please.
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all right. in a move that caught almost everybody on board, harry reid scraped a jobs bill and presented his own version. i don't know if it's going to be any better. john has the details. good evening, john. >> larry, in the last 24 hours, we have had a vivid demonstration on how difficult it is to work across partly lines. max baucus and chuck grassley negotiated a deal on a jobs package included a new payroll jobs tax credit, additional spending for unemployment and health benefits and tax extenders that republicans want. but harry reid got pushed back by democrats who said they wanted more in that bill. he said stop, we're going to
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pass something smaller. >> we'll have to finish it the week we get back. republicans are going to have to make a choice. >> here's in that $15 million slimmed-down bill. payroll tax credit for the hiring of people who have been out of work for at least 60 days. secondly, you have some write-offs, expanded write-offs for some capital expenditures up to $250,000. extension of what we call build america bonds. tax benefits for certain construction projects and some provisions on of the highway trust fund. all of these are things that both parties have agreed on, but the question is, whether there's goodwill left after republicans thought that harry reid pulled the rug out from under them. >> if obama stimulus pack san
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jose act is so good. why is rising unemployment so awful projection? let me go right to our expert. robert reich the awe thoor of "supercapitalism" and steve moore of the wall street journal. he's the author of "return to prosperity." i want the entire world to see, last evening, the white house council of economic advisers put out their report, a forecast of unemployment. in 2008, the average was 5.8%. this past year, 9.3%. look at this, 2010, 10%. 2011, 9.2%. 2012, 8.2%.
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robert, that is an acknowledgment and admission of the failure of this keynesian big government. after the recession is over should be down towards 5%, 6% at least. >> i don't think so at all, larry. it's an acknowledgment how deep a hole we're in. dilemma for policymakers. how huge the bubble was under the george w. bush administration and the consequence of that. if the private sector, i want you and steve, both of you, to give me a response on this. if the private sector is pulling on its horns and consumers aren't spending and business are holding back, where is the demand going to come from? >> my thought on robert reich, he's always on target. a great question. my thought is, economies -- >> but you're not answering it.
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>> hang on a second. deep holes in the economy should be followed by very strong springbacks. my concern is, all of this federal spending is borrowing is sapping the resources and the life blood out of the private sector and hence is doing more harm than good, steve moore, that is why their unemployment forecast is so bad, is is that possible. in other words, robert's cherished, alleged demand side, massive government spending and borrowing is actually depressing the economy and keeping unemployment high. >> yeah, i know this is going to shock robert reich. i agree with you, larry. but you know, i think is the problem. you have all of these anti-growth things coming down the pike. increase in the tax rates next year. when i talked to small businessmen and women. they say, you know, basically,
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employers, bob, are on strike right now. not because they have demand for their products they're so fearful that any profits that they might be make might be taken away by the government. >> consumers are worried about their jobs. i would really love it if one or both of you answered my question. >> i did. >> where is the demand going to come from? >> first, you need to have production. businesses produce things. >> look it -- >> private investment. private investment. >> you have to have demand for products. >> build it and it will come. that's your whole infrastruct e infrastructure. robert, if you tax private investor moore, you get less private investment and less production as steve said. let me put it back.
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>> let's agree with it. >> robert, it's right out there. we're coming to the end of february. let's put the unemployment forecast back on the scoreboard on the full screen. take a look at the dismal unemployment right. 10% for 2010. still 8% in 2012. '09 is the first year of recovery. '10 is the second year. '11 is the third year and '12 is the fourth year. you still have an 8% unemployment rate. >> number one, it's terrible. the outlook is awful. number two the jobs bill that's working its way through the senate right now is a laugh. pathetic. >> we agree on that. now we're talking. >> because it is so small relative to the scale of the problem. >> bob, it's not just it's small, it's nothing burger.
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all of the items in the bill are going to do nothing. a rehash of the stimulus bill that we just passed. bob reich, i will give you credit on something. you were the architect, of the obama first stimulus bill, i think you got some explaining to do. 10%. 9%. 8% unemployment. it didn't work. >> the problem with the first stimulus bill, it wasn't large enough. right now, a lot of people understand that. i mean, this is not just me, it's not just me saying it. >> $860 billion. robert -- >> the original stimulus should have been given the rate of deleveraging, the extent to which consumers have to dig themselves out of debt, given their fears of job loss -- >> time-out, bob. when started doing this show together, back when george bush did the investment tax cuts in
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2003. if you look at the jobs performances of those two stimulus bills, no question we got a better outcome than we have gotten from your plan. that was five times more expensive. >> steve, you're missing a very critical point. we're not recovering from a typical recession. we're recovering from a recession, not one created by the federal reserve board, overshooting, no, the recession we're now in, is a recession brought about a huge boosting of an asset bubble. repercussions all over not only the united states economy, but the global economy. consumers are scared. they're not -- >> we have lost steve moore in the last minute. i want to say one thing to complete steve moor's point.
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you know. >> i have a chance to finish my sentences now. >> for all of the whacking at george bush, steve moore made a good point, after lowering tax rates, we got the unemployment rate down to 6.5% to 4%. i don't know when we're going to see an up employment rate that low. the bush thing, you know, he gets slammed left and right. even i think was too much a big a spender. the reality is, we got unemployment down to 4.5%. this obama forecast of unemployment, we may not see that 4% in my lifetime. >> in the 1990s under the clinton administration, we got unemployment down to below 4%. >> but bill clinton, i was very
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worried about his health last night. bill clinton, administration, welfare reform. they had a spending freeze and baseline reductions to move us into surplus and tremendous growth. mr. obama, he can't hold bill clinton's loafers when it comes to be a true pro-growth democrat. >> i want to come to the defense of the obama administration in many respects. one particular one that has not yet been put on the table the failure of the bush administration to regulate, watch what wall street was doing, to allow the predatory lending that was going on at that time, created a huge explosion that we didn't have at the start of the bush administration. >> you also had a real economic recovery that was papa bush gave mr. clinton. the debate will continue.
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i appreciate your time and debate. ultimately, all of this big government stimulus spending and borrowing will be judged on the basis of economic performance, most importantly, on the unemployment rate and that forecast from the council of economic advisers was devastating. >> jobs and demand come first. >> all right. >> jobs and demand come first. not business investment first >> i thank my good friend robert reich and my good friend steve moore. coming up, is america angry at washington? there's a new gallup poll. 77% of america think we're going in the wrong direction and the new york times says 75% of voters believe that congress should be out on its keyser the. we got two famous radio personalities ready to debate, is obama jimmy carter? and the democrat hegny going
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down in washington? you're watching "the kudlow report." we always go up.
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all right. some more on the disconnect between washington, d.c. and the rest of the country. between big government planners and spenders and the tea party out there with free market po populi populism. i say the tea party poup list are optimistic. we have nancy skinner, by the way, ran against president obama in the 2004 senate primary, very interesting. hello, nancy and jerry doyle. now, let me ask you this, we're going to cut this down. i want to tease the debate. my first question, nancy skinner, is obama jimmy carter reincarnate snd. >> no, he's not. but he's kind of getting the charlie brown routine. where lucy, how many times could she pull the football out from underneath him.
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he has to man up now. because the other side will not grow up. they have shown from the beginning of the process, no honeymoon from day one, they were going to obstruct every step along the way. even for stimulus, recovery, now they're filibustering. >> jerry, same question to you, look, politics is a contact sport. i think nancy skinner probably learned that. is obama in effect jimmy carter? >> well, i would have to say, he's not jimmy carter, this is the worst economy since jimmy carter. they say since the great depression. there's a whole disconnect in washington, d.c. 495 the beltway around d.c., the crypt night of logic. outside people make sense. inside, they don't make sense -- >> inside the beltway, the democrats, look so pessimistic,
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only we in government know what should you do. on the other side, jerry, you got your tea party, let's keep what we earn, have we set up, it's not carter ma lay, a quick thought and then we'll return. >> people know what to do. they want government out of the way. bigger and badder and people want the self-determination. not the government telling them -- >> larry to wrap it up, yes, the democrats say, yes we can. >> you're going to come right back. nancy skinner. jerry doyle. much more to talk about.
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on the human network. cisco. all right. we're back with nancy skinner and jerry doyle. nancy, new gallup poll, 77% are dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country. and yesterday's new york times poll, 75% want to replace congress. nancy, that's worst than jimmy carter ever had. >> what they're angry at, it's
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the food fight. it really is. there was a washington post, abc poll yesterday that said 1 in 10 americans don't know what the tea party is about. obama has been saying, yes we can solve these problems, and gop right now, is saying no, we can't. we shouldn't have done stimulus. where it got our gdp to positive 6.5%. there is progress. i'm in detroit, larry, they don't see it. it takes a long time for the recovery to trickle down. >> jerry doyle, nancy says it's a food fight. i want to ask you, rather than just a food fight, is it president obama's big government controlling, regulating, texing and spending message, jerry. >> i would say keep going,
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larry, you're on a roll there. >> barack obama can't control his dna. this is what this administration is all about. undermining the capitalism. not understanding the free markets. getting in the way of business. when i was a pilot, we had pilot induced oscillation. this is obama induced oscillation. >> he had to do because of the train wreck of the bush policies. they let the markets run wild. >> the statue of limb takes of bush -- >> b.o.b., blame it on bush. >> if you got a problem, jerry doyle, you got a problem, own your problem and that's the first step towards solving it. >> barack obama, i'm powerless to the socialism. >> all right, nancy skinner. you guys are wonderful. thank you very much. we had no agreement. it was great fun.
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coming up, my last word.
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winter olympics coming. see the kudlow report on cnbc world starting on tuesday. sirius and xm radio. we'll be back to normal time when --
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